The past is prologue…
May 31, 2009
The continuing “economic unpleasantness” is driving more and more of us to search for analogs in our past from which we can learn. But as we search, we might pause to remember what may be the most valuable lesson the past has to teach: essentially, that Niels Bohr was right to proclaim that “Prediction is hard, especially of the future” (a sentiment also famously attributed to the philosopher Yogi Berra).
We might consider, for example, these forecasts, predictions, and prognostications (sourced from several places, mostly Wikiquote, here and here)…
“Every attempt to employ mathematical methods in the study of chemical questions muts be considered profoundly irrational and contrary to the spirit of chemistry. If mathematical analysis should ever hold a prominent place in chemistry – an abberation which is happily almost impossible – it would occasion a rapid and widespread degeneration of that science”
August Comte in Philosophic Positive (1830).
“Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You’re crazy.” — Workers whom Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill for oil in 1859.
“The telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.”
Western Union internal memo, 1876.
“The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.” — Sir William Preece, chief engineer of the British Post Office, 1876.
“Heavier than air flying machines are impossible.”
Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.
“Everything that can be invented, has been invented.”
Charles H. Duel, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899
“That Professor Goddard with his ‘chair’ in Clark College and the countenancing of the Smithsonian Institution does not know the relation of action to reaction, and of the need to have something better than a vacuum against which to react–to say that would be absurd. Of course, he only seems to lack the knowledge ladled out daily in high schools.”
1921 New York Times editorial about Robert Goddard’s revolutionary rocket work. (The remark was retracted in the July 17, 1969 issue.)
“The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?”
David Sarnoff’s associates in response to his urging for investment in the radio in 1920s.
“Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” — H. M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.
“Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” — Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929.
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.
“Where a calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons.”
Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949.
“I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.”
Editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957.
“We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.” — Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.
Commenting on the microchip: “But what is it good for?”
Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968.
“With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve out a big slice of the U.S. market.” — Business Week, August 2, 1968.
“It will be years — not in my time — before a woman will become Prime Minister.” — Margaret Thatcher, 1974.
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”
Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977.
“640kB ought to be enough for anybody.”
Bill Gates, 1981
… As we smile with the clarity of hindsight, we might remind ourselves that almost all of the “surprises” that confounded these expert convictions were happy surprises… We might embrace shoshin– that is, we might practice “beginner’s mind”…
And we might recall Arie de Geus’ wise words:
“the only sustainable competitive advantage is the ability to learn faster than your competition.”
